Iran conflict rattles energy markets, adding volatility to grain prices
Our benchmark spot prices (Midlands & Wales)
Feed Wheat
The war in Iran has heavily destabilised energy markets and threatened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that handles approximately 20% of global crude oil and a third of the world’s urea fertiliser trade.
UK wheat prices have been volatile in light of this uncertainty, while global supplies remain high. The “new crop” November 26 London feed wheat contract touched £180.00 in trading on Tuesday but eased back to £177.85 by Wednesday’s close.
The “old crop” May 2026 contract dropped back from £169.45 to £168.00 on Wednesday, before recovering to finish Thursday at £169.90.
We’ve seen a big increase in forward-selling on Hectare Trading, farmers locking in prices on their 2026 feed wheat in North East and Central Scotland, the East and West Midlands, East Anglia and the South West.
For full spot and futures price analysis, visit our enhanced Insights on Hectare Trading.
Milling Wheat
The European Commission raised its EU soft wheat harvest estimate to 134.4 million tonnes but lowered its export forecast by 1 million tonnes to 28.5 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, heavy rains have plagued France, causing French soft wheat ratings to slide to 84% good or excellent, from 88% last week.
On Hectare Trading, farmers have been forward-selling 2026 group 2 wheat in the West Midlands, group 4 hard wheat in the East Midlands and North East Scotland and group 4 soft wheat in North East Scotland.
Paris milling wheat (March 2026) has been choppy all week, closing Monday at €195.50 (£170.85), up to €197.25 (£171.94) on Tuesday, then down to €192.75 (£167.79) on Wednesday. The contract finished Thursday at €196.25 (£170.61).
Oilseeds
Brazil is on track to produce a record soybean crop exceeding 177 million tonnes, which continues to exert downward pressure on global prices and challenge US export opportunities.
Meanwhile, after a sharp increase in planting, ABARES increased its Australian rapeseed crop estimate to 7.7 million tonnes.
The main influence on the global oilseed complex, however, has been the spike in crude oil prices following the escalating conflict in the Middle East, making alternative fuels like biodiesel more attractive.
Paris rapeseed (May 2026) has risen sharply from €483.00 (£420.89) on 25 February to €499.00 (£434.98) at Tuesday’s close, having breached €500 in trading. After pausing for breath on Wednesday, another surge took the contract to €503.00 (£437.28) at Thursday’s close.
Other Crop
The wet weather in France has delayed spring barley planting, currently now only 32% complete. Winter barley has also been affected by the poor conditions, the proportion rated good or excellent dropping from 84% to 81%.
Meanwhile, the latest MARS report indicated that barley may have suffered frost damage in the coldest areas of Northern and Eastern Europe.
At home, farmers have been forward-selling 2026 feed barley in Central Scotland, the West Midlands and the South, and malting barley in East Anglia.
Wanted Crop
🌾 Feed Wheat is wanted for collection from across the East Midlands, West Midlands, Yorkshire, and the Humber. Wanted at £175–180/t ex-farm for April movement.
🌾 Milling Wheat (Group 1, 2, or 4 Hard) is wanted for collection from East Anglia, the East Midlands, Essex, Hertfordshire, Oxfordshire, and Buckinghamshire. Wanted at £160–168/t ex-farm for March movement. Spec: 10.2% protein / 74kg/hl / 130 Hagberg.
🌾 Feed Barley is wanted for delivery to Shropshire. Collection from across Mid Wales, North Wales, and North West England. Wanted at £155–£165/t ex-farm for March to May movement.
🌾 Feed Barley is wanted for collection from across the East Midlands. Wanted at £155–158/t ex-farm for March movement.
🌾 Feed Barley is wanted for collection from across Yorkshire and the Humber. Wanted at £158–162/t ex-farm for March movement.
This article is for general information only and is not an instruction to trade. While we make every effort to ensure the accuracy of the content at the time of publication, Hectare Trading makes no guarantee regarding the data provided.