Markets remain cautious as geopolitics and costs apply pressure
Our benchmark spot prices (Midlands & Wales)
Feed Wheat
Global wheat markets continue to be driven by shifting geopolitics and energy prices while increasingly balanced by ample global supply. Prices came under pressure mid-week as traders focused on signals that the Iran conflict could end sooner than expected, with Trump suggesting a resolution within weeks. Markets remain cautious. Prices have also experienced pressure as freight costs start to weigh. The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, published on Tuesday, gave support to wheat prices on the news that corn acreage is expected to decrease or stay the same in 37 of 48 states.
Despite UK crops being in their “best condition since 2023” the rising fertiliser costs cloud the harvest picture as farmers react.
UK ICE feed wheat (May 2026) closed Thursday at approximately £175.10, up on the week. New crop November 2026 closed at around £184.85.
Milling Wheat
Paris milling wheat (May 2026) has broadly tracked the feed wheat complex this week, caught between geopolitical risk premiums and the weight of plentiful global supply.
Paris milling wheat (May 2026) closed Thursday at €202.50, recovering from the previous day’s close of €201.25, but still down from Tuesday’s close of €204.75.
Feed Barley
Supportive pressure on feed barley prices from generally stronger wheat prices, have been balanced out by good growing conditions and successful drilling progress.
Competitive bidding for old crop feed barley has been observed on Hectare Trading, with particular activity noted in the Yorkshire and the Humber region.
Oilseeds
The ongoing conflict in Iran and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has become the defining driver for the global oilseed complex this week. Soybean oil climbed sharply in Chicago as higher crude costs continued to boost the biofuel sector, while Indonesia announced it will push its biodiesel blending mandate to 50% from July, citing the need to mitigate energy supply disruptions caused by the conflict. The US EPA has also finalised strong renewable fuel blending standards for 2026 and 2027, reinforcing vegetable oil demand across the complex.
Paris rapeseed (May 2026) has softened from the mid-week highs, pulling back from Tuesday’s peak of €515.75, to close Thursday at €506.
This article is for general information only and is not an instruction to trade. While we make every effort to ensure the accuracy of the content at the time of publication, Hectare Trading makes no guarantee regarding the data provided.