Wheat swings on US–Iran ceasefire, while fertiliser concerns remain
Our benchmark spot prices (Midlands & Wales)
Feed Wheat
The key development this week was Wednesday’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, conditional on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
While European wheat markets dropped on the ceasefire news, US wheat futures showed resilience due to alarming domestic supply fundamentals. The USDA has estimated a total US wheat acreage of 43.8 million acres in 2026, the lowest level since 1919, while the first crop progress report of the season rated only 35% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition, down from 48% a year ago.
After the long Easter weekend, London feed wheat (May 2026) climbed to £176.00 on Tuesday before dropping to £173.20 on Wednesday. The “new crop” November 2026 contract – more exposed to production cost fluctuations due to the Middle East conflict – meanwhile suffered a near-£5 drop to £181.05 on Wednesday.
While the May 2026 contract recovered to £172.75 on Thursday, the November 2026 contract could only reach £179.20, reflecting concerns that shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is still virtually blocked.
On Hectare Trading, farmers have been locking in prices on their new crop, forward-selling 2026 feed wheat in North East Scotland, East Anglia and Northumberland and Scottish Borders.
For full spot and futures price analysis, visit our enhanced Insights on Hectare Trading.
Milling Wheat
The fertiliser crisis continues to affect farmers worldwide and could force a global shift away from nitrogen-intensive crops in upcoming planting decisions.
Meanwhile, crop conditions in France remain exceptional, with 84% of soft wheat and 81% of durum wheat rated good or very good, according to FranceAgriMer.
Since hitting a seven-month high of €210.50 (£182.09) on 13 March, Paris milling wheat (May 2026) has weakened steadily, dropping below €200 on Wednesday to close at €197.75 (£171.83). Another lukewarm day saw the contract finish Thursday at €195.50 (£170.27).
We’ve seen forward-selling of 2026 group 3 wheat on Hectare Trading in East Anglia, for movement from September to December. New crop prices have also been locked in on group 4 hard wheat in Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire, moving in August and September.
Feed Barley
UK barley growers are currently navigating a mix of challenging market economics and favourable agronomic conditions.
Weak demand from brewers, maltsters and distillers – down 18.7% year-on-year – is causing surplus malting barley to be diverted into feed channels. Meanwhile, the UK’s winter barley is in its best condition for March since 2023, with 85% of the crop rated as good or excellent, according to AHDB.
Farmers have been selling their 2026 feed barley forward in Central and North East Scotland and the South East, for August movement.
Oilseeds
Brent crude oil dropped from nearly $110 per barrel to below $95 following the Iran ceasefire announcement, but rose again on Thursday as the continuation of Israel’s attacks on Lebanon put the temporary truce under severe pressure.
The global oilseed complex is not quite as reactive to the energy markets as it was earlier in the Iran conflict. Nonetheless, Paris rapeseed (May 2026) dropped by €9 to €497.00 (£431.86) on Wednesday; following an intraday rally on Thursday, it retreated to settle unchanged at €497.00 (£432.85) on Thursday’s close.
Wanted Crop
🌾 Rye is wanted for collection from across England and the Scottish Borders for movement between April and July with a guide price of £150–£165/t.
🌾 Milling Wheat (Group 1, 2 or 4 Hard) (10.2/74/130) required from across East Anglia and the East Midlands. April or May movement with a guide price of £170–£177/t.
🌾 Milling Wheat (Group 3 or 4 Soft) (10.2/74/130) is wanted from Yorkshire and the Humber for April movement with a guide price of £177–£180/t.
🌾 Feed Wheat required for collection from the East Midlands for late April or early May movement with a guide price of £170–£175/t.
🌾 Feed Barley is wanted for collection from the West Midlands. Movement between April and June with a guide price of £162–£165/t.
This article is for general information only and does not constitute advice. While we make every effort to ensure the accuracy of the content at the time of publication, Hectare Trading makes no guarantee regarding the data provided.