Concerns grow over global wheat production
Our benchmark spot prices (Midlands & Wales)
Feed Wheat
In Australia, weather models now indicate an 82% probability of an El Niño event forming by July. This heightened drought risk has prompted analysts to forecast a 7% to 20% drop in Australian wheat acreage.
Russian spring planting is off to its worst start in many years due to exceptionally cold weather and heavy rainfall, potentially reducing spring wheat acreage to a two-decade low.
Meanwhile, Argentina’s upcoming wheat harvest is forecast to fall by 23% to 21.3 million tonnes due to reduced planted area, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
After dipping markedly to £185.30 at the end of last week, the May 2026 London feed wheat contract jumped back to £187.10 on Monday. More modest gains saw the “old crop” contract edge up to £188.60 by Wednesday’s close, then to £188.75 on Thursday.
On Hectare Trading, farmers have been locking in prices by forward-selling 2026 feed wheat in the East and West Midlands and Central and North East Scotland.
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Milling Wheat
The European Crop Monitoring Service (MARS) revised its yield forecasts downward for EU soft wheat – to 6.01 tonnes per hectare, from 6.05 a month earlier – citing a dry April and late frosts in Central and Eastern Europe.
In France, however, recent rainfall has stabilised soft wheat, with 80% of the crop now rated in good or excellent condition.
Similar to London futures, Paris milling wheat has recovered from last week’s slump. The September 2026 contract moved up to €213.25 (£185.57) by Monday’s close, then to €216.75 (£187.61) on Wednesday, before finishing Thursday back at €214.25 (£185.24).
This week, farmers in East Anglia have been selling their 2026 group 3 wheat forward, for movement this autumn and winter.
Feed Barley
Australian barley exports fell in March to 1.36 million tonnes, of which 1.04 million tonnes was feed – down 9% on February. China was the destination for 80% of the feed barley shipped, with Saudi Arabia second at 11%.
Weak export demand is also placing downward pressure on feed barley prices in Ukraine, as buyers in the Middle East remain nervous due to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
On Hectare Trading, we’ve seen farmers in the South West forward-selling 2026 feed barley, to lock in prices on new crop.
Oilseeds
The White House announced on Monday that China has committed to purchasing $17 billion worth of US agricultural products up to 2028. Traders are seeking more clarity on the deal, especially so far as it concerns global trade in soybeans.
In Brazil, soybean production forecasts continue to climb, with 2026/27 estimates hitting 186 million tonnes as export volumes reach record highs. However, China’s deal with the US may cause Brazil to seek new export markets. In 2025, Brazil’s agricultural exports to China totalled $55.2 billion, of which $34.5 billion was soybeans.
Paris rapeseed futures started the week strongly, the August 2026 contract climbing to a new two-year high close of €528.75 (£460.12) on Monday. Momentum stalled from this point, as prices pulled back to €526.75 (£455.93) on Wednesday and €523.75 (£452.83) by Thursday’s end.
Wanted Crop
🌾 Feed wheat is wanted for collection in East Anglia, East Midlands and the South East. Guide price of £193/t ex-farm for bold-looking grains, with movement between September and December.
🌾 Feed wheat required for collection in the West Midlands, Wales, Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire. Movement in June or July to a mill outside Worcestershire, with a guide price of £195–200/t ex-farm.
🌾 Feed wheat is wanted for collection in the South West. June or July movement, with a guide price of £190–197/t ex-farm.
🌾 Feed barley required for collection in Yorkshire and the Humber for movement next month, with a guide price of £170/t ex-farm.
🥣 Milling oats wanted for collection in the North West, the West Midlands and North, South and West Wales. Movement in June, with a guide price of £115–130/t ex-farm.
🌾 Feed wheat required for collection in Yorkshire and the Humber for movement this month, with a guide price of £192–195/t ex-farm.
🌾 Group 1 wheat (13/76/250) wanted for collection in East Anglia, the East Midlands, Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire. July movement, with a guide price of £200/t ex-farm.
This article is for general information only and does not constitute advice. While we make every effort to ensure the accuracy of the content at the time of publication, Hectare Trading makes no guarantee regarding the data provided.