Harvest 2025: how are crop specs holding up this year?
3-MINUTE READ
After last year’s washout, UK farmers couldn’t be blamed for entering harvest 2025 with some trepidation. So does the data gathered so far give any reason to breathe easier?
The latest AHDB Harvest Progress report, covering data up to 6 August, paints a cautiously optimistic picture on the whole.
Winter barley
With the winter barley harvest now complete, indications of crop quality are strong. AHDB reports that the average specific weight across the UK is 65 kg per hectolitre, while moisture levels average 14.6% and 99% of grains are larger than 2.25mm.
Focusing specifically on malting barley, germination averages a healthy 99%, while nitrogen levels range quite widely from 1.4% to 2.0% (compared to a final reading of 1.3% to 1.6% last year). As UK maltsters typically require nitrogen levels between 1.60% and 1.75%, this raises some key questions:
Will less winter barley meet the malting spec this year?
If so, will this increase the domestic supply of feed barley, placing downward pressure on prices?
Will the quality of spring barley suffer from the lack of rain from March to mid-May? Early tests show nitrogen in the spring crop ranging from 1.5% to 2.0%.
Winter wheat
With 48% of the UK winter wheat harvest complete, again the signs are generally good. The average specific weight is 79 kg/hl and moisture is at 15.0%, in line with the past five years.
For Group 1 wheat samples, protein levels average an encouraging 13.5%, suitable for milling. Hagberg Falling Numbers have been generally over 300 seconds, although some samples have dropped close to 200 seconds, well below milling spec.
Winter oilseed rape
The UK winter oilseed rape harvest was complete by 6 August. The all-important oil content has held up well this year, at around 44% to 45% according to AHDB. Moisture content is also in line with recent years at 9%.
One of the key drivers of OSR prices this year will be the potential conclusion of a trade deal between the US and China and its impact on the global oilseed market, with President Trump pushing for China to quadruple its soybean orders from the US.
Oats
The oat harvest is complete in the East of England, Wales and the North West, and 48% complete overall.
Specific weights average a healthy 53 kg/hl, although AHDB notes there may be significant quality and yield differences between the winter and spring crop. AHDB also reports a wide variation in moisture content, from 10.0% to 16.5%.
Yields: an improving picture
After the second worst harvest since 1983 for cereal and oilseed production last year, early signs are broadly positive for a bounceback in 2025.
If we compare the current average yields reported by AHDB with Defra’s final yields for the previous 10 years, we can see improvements in winter barley and wheat over 2024, although still below average levels for the past decade.
AHDB’s average yields for harvest 2025 to date compared to Defra’s final yields for 2015 to 2024
Winter OSR is the standout performer with an average yield of 3.98 tonnes per hectare, the highest since 2011. Indeed, one farmer in Lincolnshire has posted an incredible OSR yield of 7.52 t/ha, a new world record.
Oats buck the trend, with the current yield of 4.82 t/ha falling below the five-year average of 5.07 t/ha, although AHDB expects this to increase when the spring crop is harvested.
Now that the national picture for yields is taking shape, we can start to benchmark crop performance and update grain marketing plans accordingly.
How do your own yields compare to the national averages? In the three AHDB Harvest Progress reports so far, they have noted a high variation in yields from farm to farm, even within the same regions. This is also reflected in our own regular harvest updates.
Insights from Andrew Huxham
Hectare Trading’s co-founder, arable farmer Andrew Huxham, has seen a bumper spring barley crop in West Sussex:
“In the perfect conditions, the winter barley would generally outperform the spring barley. The weather we've had this spring has been very hot and dry, lacking rainfall, and yet the spring barley has absolutely outperformed the winter barley. It astounds me, the small amount of rainfall that spring barley needs to perform. Our spring barley results so far have been good in terms of specific weight, our nitrogens have been good, germination’s fine.”
Winter OSR has also exceeded expectations by over 20%:
“We’ve averaged about 4.5 t/ha. Oil content is about 46% to 47%. Part of the reason for the good OSR yields and good oil content is because it had hot, bright, long levels of sunshine the whole time it was flowering. It’s a real success story and will make up a big shortfall in other cropping.”
Better than 2024 – but patchy
As we head towards the back end of August, harvest 2025 is seeing a welcome rebound in yields, with malting barley and milling wheat generally meeting spec, and the spring barley crop potentially holding up better than feared.
Variability – exacerbated this year by extreme weather conditions – gives some cause for concern, and some crops are still trailing their long-term yield averages, but compared with 2024’s bruising season, this year is already looking more hopeful.
Not sure how to get started with Hectare Trading? Contact our team today and we’ll help you take control of your grain marketing.
This article is for general information only and is not an instruction to trade. While we make every effort to ensure the accuracy of the content at the time of publication, Hectare Trading makes no guarantee regarding the data provided.