Harvest 2025: combining global and local perspectives
3-MINUTE READ
The past fortnight has brought a glut of new grain supply figures, both global and local, and even a rethink from AHDB on its own yield estimates. With so much information flying around, how can you use it to shape your grain marketing plan?
We take a look at recent UK and international updates, and regional agronomy factors, to argue that the most effective plan balances the global and the local.
Global wheat supply tightens
The USDA’s latest WASDE report (12 August) trimmed its global wheat production forecast from 808.6 million tonnes in July to 806.9 Mt, due to reduced expectations in China, Brazil and Argentina.
US wheat production for 2025/26 also reduced slightly to 52.5 Mt, with the projection for ending stocks tightening from 24.2 Mt to 23.6 Mt.
Meanwhile, the USDA Crop Progress report (18 August) shows the US winter wheat harvest is all but wrapped up (94% complete), while spring wheat is on track at 36%.
The concern is less about timing and more about quality: only 50% of the US spring wheat crop is rated good or excellent, well below last year’s 73%. Crop condition has been dragged down by drought in Montana, where only 5% of spring wheat is good or excellent, and Washington, where only 15% hits that mark.
US spring wheat condition: 2025 (17 August) compared to 2024 (17 August)
With restrained global wheat supply and quality concerns in the US, there may be a little more support for milling premiums worldwide.
US corn breaking records
By contrast, WASDE projects record US corn production in 2025/26, lifting its forecast sharply from July’s 15,705 Mt to 16,742 Mt. This is driven by a significant shift in the estimated planted area from 95.2 million acres to 97.3 million, and an increased yield from 181.0 bushels per acre to 188.8.
An abundant supply of US corn could place pressure on UK feed wheat and barley prices, with corn being a substitute feed crop.
UK yields under scrutiny
Back home, the picture is still unfolding. AHDB admitted this week an error in calculating its harvest yield estimates for 2025, after pushback from farmers who said the numbers didn’t tally with what they were cutting.
Their last Harvest Report put average UK wheat yields at 7.7 t/ha which, combined with their 2025 acreage forecasts, pointed to a national crop of 12.4 Mt – around 11% up on 2024. That optimism raised eyebrows and, while we await revised figures, the episode highlights the importance of reliable data when planning your grain marketing.
Andrew Huxham, co-founder of Hectare Trading and an arable farmer himself, says that harvest 2025 has been characterised by variability:
“Some blocks of wheat we’re 20% down on yield. Some blocks we’re up nearly 10%. On average, over all the wheat we grow, we’re probably only 5% down on our estimated tonnage, which is amazing. But there is huge variation. We’ve got anything from 7.5 t/ha to just shy of 11 t/ha on really good ground south of Chichester near Bognor. So there is anything and everything out there in terms of wheat yields.”
Barley: a tale of two crops
As we mentioned last week, Andrew has seen spring barley outperform the winter crop. He puts this down to soil type and drilling conditions:
“Often people in our area grow winter barley on heavier ground where it’s likely to yield better in the perfect year. And the heavier ground – ground with more clay content – is where the crop suffered the most in this dry spring.
“People that grow a lot of spring malting barley would generally grow it on light, chalky ground. And you would think that would dry out in a hot, dry spring, but actually, you can often get it in the ground earlier, so ideally the end of January or February when everything else is still really wet – the lovely free-draining chalk in the Downs is where everybody can get on and drill spring barley.
“And that means it got some of that early rain before it stopped raining in March. But it also means that the roots got down into the chalk aquifer and continued to draw out a little bit of moisture.”
An ever-changing picture
Where does this all leave UK farmers making marketing decisions? Global wheat supply is tighter than expected, while US quality concerns should be monitored closely. Meanwhile, US corn is abundant, which could drag on UK feed wheat and barley prices, and domestic yields remain uncertain.
For UK farmers, the message is clear: keep one eye on the world stage, and the other on what’s happening in the UK and your own immediate region. Grain marketing decisions are best made with both perspectives in mind. While global supply sets the tone, local conditions shape the detail.
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This article is for general information only and is not an instruction to trade. While we make every effort to ensure the accuracy of the content at the time of publication, Hectare Trading makes no guarantee regarding the data provided.