Oil price swings drive volatility across global grain markets
Our benchmark spot prices (Midlands & Wales)
Feed Wheat
Brent crude oil experienced extreme volatility this week, pushing towards $120/barrel on Monday amid threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, before retreating below $100/barrel following President Trump’s suggestion the Iran war could end soon, alongside an agreement by G7 nations to release strategic oil reserves.
Against this backdrop, the March WASDE report was largely treated as a non-event by the market. Global wheat ending stocks were revised down to 276.96 million tonnes – this is still near a five-year high and the global wheat market remains comfortably supplied.
Having finished last week above £180, the “new crop” November 26 London feed wheat contract fell back to £178.60 on Tuesday, before turning upward again. Meanwhile, the “old crop” May 2026 contract gave back some of last week’s gains to finish Tuesday at £170.00, but recovered to reach £172.50 at Thursday’s close.
Many farmers are now selling their 2026 feed wheat forward on Hectare Trading, locking in prices across Scotland, the North East, the Midlands and Central and Eastern England.
For full spot and futures price analysis, visit our enhanced Insights on Hectare Trading.
Milling Wheat
South Korean millers agreed this week to import 32,000 tons of milling wheat from the US. Meanwhile, FranceAgriMer reduced its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the EU to 7.1 million tonnes, pushing projected domestic end-of-season stocks to 3.39 million tonnes – the highest level in 16 years.
On Hectare Trading, farmers have been forward-selling 2026 group 3 wheat in Yorkshire and the Humber, group 4 hard wheat in Northumberland & Scottish Borders and Yorkshire and the Humber and group 4 soft wheat in Central Scotland.
Similar to London, Paris milling wheat futures have been tugged in two directions by global turmoil and supply fundamentals. The new forward contract, May 2026, dropped nearly €6 to €204.00 (£176.55) on Tuesday, but recovered well to end Thursday at €209.25 (£180.61).
Feed Barley
The latest AHDB cereal usage report indicated that demand for barley by UK brewers, maltsters and distillers has fallen by 19.2% for the season to date (July to January) compared to the same period in 2024/25.
Sellers in the West Midlands have been selling feed barley for March movement at £164/tonne. We’ve also seen some forward-selling of 2026 feed barley in North East and Central Scotland and Yorkshire and the Humber, along with 2026 malting barley in the East Midlands.
Oilseeds
Chinese demand for US soybeans – a key driver of the global oilseed complex – remains sluggish as buyers continue to favour cheaper Brazilian supplies, while the market is closely watching for any developments from upcoming US–China talks.
In Canada, the latest planting survey indicated a strategic shift towards oilseeds. Growers are expected to favour canola over wheat, a move that will only be increased by China’s decision to lift tariffs on Canadian canola.
Crude oil volatility has again driven Paris rapeseed futures this week. The May 2026 contract rose to €514.00 (£444.76) on Monday, dropped to €501.00 (£433.59) at Tuesday’s close, then recovered to finish Thursday at €515.00 (£444.50).
Wanted Crop
🫘 Feed Beans required in West Midlands, Mid or North Wales to be moved in the next two weeks. Guide price of £210–215/t with flexible payment terms.
🌾 Feed Wheat is wanted in the East Midlands to be delivered or collected for an end-user home in Lincoln. May movement with a guide price of £176.50/t.
🌾 Feed Wheat required from across East Anglia for movement in March or April with a guide price of £162–165/t.
🌾 Milling Wheat (Group 1, 2 or 4 Hard) (10.2/74/130) is wanted from across East Anglia, the East Midlands, Essex, Hertfordshire, Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire. March movement with a guide price of £162–168/t.
🌾 Milling Wheat (Group 1, 2 or 4 Hard) (10.2/74/130) required from across East Midlands, Yorkshire and the Humber. March movement with a guide price of £166–174/t.
🥣 Milling Oats wanted from across East Midlands, West Midlands, Yorkshire and the Humber for movement in April or May with a guide price of £125–127/t.
This article is for general information only and is not an instruction to trade. While we make every effort to ensure the accuracy of the content at the time of publication, Hectare Trading makes no guarantee regarding the data provided.