Wheat prices soar as focus shifts to new crop risks
Our benchmark spot prices (Midlands & Wales)
Feed Wheat
The focus for wheat has shifted forcefully from abundant old crop stocks to severe new crop weather risks and input costs.
According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, Australia’s 2026/27 wheat crop will drop 19% to 29 million tonnes while Canada’s wheat output is also expected to fall by 10% to 36.16 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, EU wheat production for 2026/27 is forecast to decline to 136.8 million tonnes from last year’s 145.1 million tonnes due to reduced planted areas.
After breaking through £180 at the tail end of last week, the “old crop” London feed wheat (May 2026) contract soared to £190.20 by Wednesday’s close – its highest level since July 2025. Pausing for breath, the contract eased back to £187.90 on Thursday.
On Hectare Trading this week, we’ve seen forward-selling of 2026 feed wheat across a range of movement months in East Anglia, as farmers aim to lock in higher prices.
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Milling Wheat
US hard red winter wheat futures continued to rise as 70% of the winter wheat crop area is now in drought. Only 30% of the crop is in good or excellent condition, compared to 49% last year. Pre-empting tighter supply, some US millers have resorted to importing shipments of Polish milling wheat.
As the May 2026 contract of Paris milling wheat winds down, the September 2026 contract has strengthened this week, finishing Wednesday at €217.25 (£188.23). Thursday saw the contract retreat back to €213.50 (£184.12).
Farmers in Northumberland & Scottish Borders have been selling 2026 group 3 wheat forward on Hectare Trading, while we’ve seen selling of 2026 group 4 hard wheat this week in Oxfordshire & Buckinghamshire.
Feed Barley
UK feed barley is finding modest support from compounders seeking value against expensive wheat, with export interest noted from Ireland, Portugal and the Netherlands.
Sellers will be watching the impact on feed barley of the UK malting barley market, which remains extremely sluggish, suffering from a 20% year-on-year drop in usage by brewers and distillers.
Farmers have been locking in prices on 2026 feed barley this week, selling new crop forward in East Anglia, Yorkshire and the Humber and the South East.
Oilseeds
Oilseed prices remain structurally supported by the surge in crude oil prices, which has bolstered biodiesel demand. Attention now turns decisively to the 2026 crop.
While the EU expects a 2.7% increase in 2026 OSR acreage to 6.3 million hectares, as growers sought to capitalise on higher prices last autumn, overall yields are expected to decline slightly.
The August 2026 contract of Paris rapeseed has made steady progress, after closing last week at €503.00 (£436.62). The contract ended Tuesday at €513.00 (£444.85) and Wednesday at €521.50 (£451.84), before slipping back to €520.75 (£449.10) at Thursday’s close.
Wanted Crop
🌾 Feed barley is wanted from the West Midlands for May or June movement with a guide price of £167–170/t ex-farm.
🌾 Feed barley required from Northumberland & Scottish Borders, Scotland and Central Scotland. May movement with a guide price of £155-160/t ex-farm.
🌾 Feed wheat is wanted from the East Midlands for May movement with a guide price of £180–183/t ex-farm.
🌾 Feed barley required from Yorkshire and the Humber. May movement with a guide price of £166-168/t ex-farm.
🌾 Feed wheat is wanted from Yorkshire and the Humber for May movement with a guide price of £166–170/t ex-farm.
🌾 Group 1 wheat required from Yorkshire and the Humber and the West Midlands. July movement with a guide price of £200/t ex-farm.
This article is for general information only and does not constitute advice. While we make every effort to ensure the accuracy of the content at the time of publication, Hectare Trading makes no guarantee regarding the data provided.