Dry spring cuts crop ratings as wheat futures retreat
Our benchmark spot prices (Midlands & Wales)
Feed Wheat
The dry May has stressed UK crops, with only 64% of winter wheat now rated in good or excellent condition, down from 74% a month earlier.
Spring wheat was hit even harder, with only 35% rated good or excellent, as crops struggle with moisture stress.
Meanwhile in Australia, agriculture intelligence office ABARES confirmed a major grain supply contraction, forecasting a 26% decrease in Australian wheat production this year to 26.7 million tonnes, 23% behind the five-year average.
After closing last week at £186.75, the November 2026 London feed wheat contract has weakened this week, falling over £4 to finish Wednesday at £182.50. Light trading saw the contract close Thursday at £180.75.
On Hectare Trading, we’ve seen forward-selling of 2026 feed wheat in Central Scotland, East Anglia and the East Midlands, as farmers seek to lock in prices.
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Milling Wheat
Brazil processed a record 13.3 million tonnes of milling wheat in 2025, driven by strong consumer demand and diversification in wheat goods. Nearly half of this wheat was imported, but concerns over protein levels from primary supplier, Argentina, are causing Brazilian mills to blend imported wheat with domestic supplies and potentially shift sourcing patterns.
Türkiye also typically imports large volumes of wheat to supply its massive flour-milling industry. However, an expected record domestic harvest of 23 million tonnes is highly likely to reduce the country’s import needs this year.
Paris milling wheat futures have also been on the slide this week. The September 2026 contract dropped to €206.50 (£178.61) on Monday and €202.75 (£175.12) on Wednesday, before weakening again to €201.25 (£174.14) at Thursday’s close.
Farmers have been selling 2026 group 3 wheat forward on Hectare Trading this week in East Anglia, and group 4 (hard) wheat in the East Midlands, for movement between September and December.
Feed Barley
Australian barley production is forecast to drop by 15% to 14.1 million tonnes this year due to dry conditions. Interestingly, barley planting is forecast to increase by 4% to 5.0 million hectares, as Australian growers opt for barley over wheat and canola due to its better performance in dry conditions and comparatively lower fertiliser requirements amid soaring input costs.
The EU Commission has reduced its forecast for European barley production by 1.2 million tonnes to 51.7 million tonnes, while conversely Türkiye expects a bumper crop, projecting a record barley harvest of 8.7 million tonnes, a massive 70.6% increase over last season.
On Hectare Trading, growers have been locking in prices on 2026 feed barley this week, selling forward in Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire for movement between July and December.
Oilseeds
Analytical firm Expana has lowered its EU rapeseed production forecast by 300,000 tonnes to 20.3 million tonnes, due to challenging spring weather, while Ukraine expects a slight increase over 2025 to 3.4 million tonnes.
Canola futures on the Canadian exchange have remained strong through the end of May into the start of June, supported by weather concerns and rumours of impending Chinese purchases of Canadian canola later this year.
Paris rapeseed futures strengthened this week before falling away on Thursday. The August 2026 contract climbed €6 to €528.50 (£457.12) on Monday, and again to €533.75 (£461.00) on Wednesday. Thursday, however, saw a sharp correction, the contract pulling back to €523.00 (£452.53).
Wanted Crop
🌾 Feed barley is wanted for collection in the North West. Guide price of £163–167 for movement this month.
🌾 Group 4 (hard) wheat (10.2/74/130) required for collection in Yorkshire and the Humber for June movement, with a guide price of £190–195/t ex-farm.
🥣 Feed oats wanted for collection in the Cornwall/Devon area. June or July movement, with a guide price of £130–135/t ex-farm.
🌾 Feed barley required for collection in the North West and West Midlands for December movement, with a guide price of £177–182/t ex-farm.
🌾 Feed barley is wanted for collection in Yorkshire and the Humber. December movement, with a guide price of £175–180/t ex-farm.
🌾 Feed barley required for collection in the West Midlands, the North West and Wales for a Shropshire home. Movement this month, with a guide price of £169–174t ex-farm.
🌾 Feed barley required for collection in the North West. Guide price of £175/t ex-farm for June movement.
This article is for general information only and does not constitute advice. While we make every effort to ensure the accuracy of the content at the time of publication, Hectare Trading makes no guarantee regarding the data provided.