Gone in a flash: why many market rallies don’t last
3-MINUTE READ
When grain prices rise, the opportunity to lock in a better return can seem to be over before it’s begun. Too often, instead of catching the rally you watch it pass you by.
Take mid-June as an example. On 17 June, the November 2025 feed wheat futures contract closed up £2.80/t at £180.80/t. The next day, it gained another £3.95/t. That was a two-day rally of 3.8%, driven by uncertainty over the Israel-Iran conflict, taking the price to £184.75/t.
By 25 June, as tensions in the Middle East eased, the price had dropped back to £177.85/t. Barely over a week after peaking, the contract had already lost all the ground it gained, and more.
Is this kind of reversal normal?
Actually, yes. The history of the November 2025 feed wheat contract shows how fast gains can evaporate.
Only twice since the contract was introduced has it risen more than 3% in a single day:
On 19 July 2023, it closed up £10.70/t at £225.75/t – only to fall five days in a row, taking the price down to £205.35/t.
On 11 June 2024, it jumped £6.35/t to £204.05/t. This was followed by a drop of £3.95/t and, by 17 June, it was back at £196.50/t.
But what about more modest rallies? On 13 occasions, the November 2025 contract has gained more than 3% over three days:
Rallies of more than 3% in London feed wheat (Nov 25), with gains/losses over next three days
Only three of these rallies led to continued gains over the next three days, all during the sustained uptrend from March to May 2024.
The other 10 times, the rally was followed by a three-day drop – four times giving up more than half the original gains.
What causes a short-lived rally?
Short-term rallies are typically driven by volatile factors such as extreme weather events, sudden currency swings or geopolitical uncertainty.
For instance, the short-lived rallies in September 2023 and October 2024 both came against the backdrop of renewed concerns over crop supply in the Black Sea region due to the war in Ukraine.
Price history of London feed wheat (Nov 25)
To judge whether a rally has legs, you need to know whether it is based on fundamental crop supply and demand data, rather than more volatile or uncertain factors.
To this end, you might look at AHDB’s regular UK crop balance sheets or their Early Bird Survey of cropping intentions, for the full picture of UK crop production, domestic demand and imports/exports.
Daily changes in London feed wheat (Nov 25)
What’s more, when the market lifts, you’re not the only one looking to profit. Other UK farmers will sell into rallies to lock in prices, which naturally caps further gains. Meanwhile, buyers can be hard to reach, as everyone rushes to sell – potentially restricting the tonnage you’re able to move.
Hedge funds and commodity traders may also use a price spike to take profits on futures positions, further limiting upward momentum in the market.
Don’t miss the next move
The key to efficient grain marketing is to stay prepared and respond swiftly. Be ready to sell when the market is ready to buy.
On Hectare Trading, you can set alerts to be notified as soon as a futures contract hits your target price, or when ex-farm prices for your crop in your region hit your specified level.
You can also use our mobile app to ensure you can access our market insights and list your own crop even when you’re out in the field.
One final note: many farmers find it’s a good idea to set your review time close by when you’re listing grain in response to a market rally.
When you add a crop listing with Hectare Trading, you decide the date and time you’ll review your price offers. Your listing will only be open for offers for one hour before your review time.
While it may be more convenient for you to schedule your review in two or three day’s time, by then you might find the rally has petered out – or even reversed!
As our examples show, you can easily lose 2% or 3% from your selling price by waiting too long. If you’re selling 116 tonnes of feed wheat, this could equal a loss of around £600.
In volatile markets, having a grain marketing plan in place means you don’t hesitate when your target hits. You can act with confidence, while others are still deciding.
Check out the latest local and national crop prices on Hectare Trading. Contact our team if you need any help creating your free account.
This article is for general information only and is not an instruction to trade. While we make every effort to ensure the accuracy of the content at the time of publication, Hectare Trading makes no guarantee regarding the data provided.