Holding over old crop through harvest? Consider the risks
3-MINUTE READ
At first glance, holding on to your grain when prices are low might seem a sensible way to wait for better returns. After all, why sell at some of the lowest prices we’ve seen in a year, if the market might bounce back? But the reality is more complex – and the risks of holding on can often outweigh the potential rewards.
So far in Q2, the November 2025 contract for London feed wheat has fallen 4.7%. Among other factors, this has been hit by the strength of sterling against the US dollar and an influx of imported wheat (2.9 million tonnes in the current crop year, according to AHDB figures, well above the five-year average of 1.856 million tonnes).
This means that, for many farmers, current prices may be lower than their cost of production. So why would you sell now?
The risk of holding unpriced crop
At the end of June 2024, the November 2024 London feed wheat contract was trading at £196.00/t. By the end of September, this had dropped to £182.60/t – a decline of £13.40/t.
Futures prices fell by -£1.21/t on average, end of June to end of September
Looking back at the past 12 years for the relevant November contract, the price fell seven years out of 12 from June to September, twice by over 10%. The average movement was -£1.21/t.
From 2013 to 2024, futures fell seven times, end of June to end of September
All of which suggests that last year’s drop was not just a blip.
Say you’re holding 1,000 tonnes of feed wheat. Based on past futures prices, you would lose an average of £1,210 by holding on to your grain. And last year you would have lost £13,400. Not to mention the cost of storing the grain over the harvest period, when space is at a premium.
If you’re holding old crop through harvest, you could lock in the carry and a known future income by selling for movement post-harvest, rather than simply hoping for better spot prices later in the year.
Know when to act
One of the biggest hurdles to selling in a bear market is psychological. It can feel wrong to sell when prices are low, especially if we have missed a previous chance to sell when prices were higher. But focusing on past missed opportunities is rarely helpful.
Instead, ask yourself:
What is my profit or loss if I sell now? And what is my risk if I don’t?
Many farmers set a target price – the number they’d like to sell at. But fewer set a floor price – the price which they can’t go below.
When you sell because the price has hit your floor, it takes the emotion out of the situation. You’re simply following your grain marketing plan – guided towards making your best return in the long run in an unpredictable market.
Once prices hit your floor, it’s no longer about hope – it’s about protecting your margins.
Test the market – without committing fully
If you’re unsure about selling all your old crop at current prices, consider selling in smaller portions. You can keep some flexibility to respond if prices improve, without risking everything on your hope of a turnaround.
Hectare Trading is designed to make this easy, helping you manage multiple smaller listings and monitor your offers in real time. You don’t have to sell if you don’t see the price you want. But in the current market climate, you might be surprised at the interest your crop receives.
Not sure where to start? Contact the Hectare Trading team and we’ll show you how to get the latest market insights and post your first crop listing.
This article is for general information only and is not an instruction to trade. While we make every effort to ensure the accuracy of the content at the time of publication, Hectare Trading makes no guarantee regarding the data provided.