Russian export disruption keeps wheat market on edge
Our benchmark spot prices (East Midlands)
Feed Wheat
Russian wheat exports for September are projected to drop threefold to 1.6–2.0 million tonnes amid ongoing port disruptions and damaged export infrastructure.
To prevent Russia from rerouting exports, Latvia has proposed a 300% duty on Russian and Belarusian grain, while Lithuania has tightened inspections to detect Russian-origin grain. Alternative routes can cover only 23–26% of Russia's export potential.
Since hitting a contract high of £219.25 on 2 September, November 2026 London feed wheat has been more choppy. Two days of gains brought the contract to £215.00 at Tuesday’s close, before falling back to £212.50 on Wednesday. The market struggled for momentum on Thursday, finally closing at £212.75.
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Milling Wheat
France’s 2026 soft wheat harvest features higher-than-normal protein levels and lower moisture, making French milling wheat easier for North African importers (like Egypt and Sudan) to substitute for disrupted Russian 12.5% protein supplies.
However, France only harvested 31.9 million tonnes of soft wheat in 2026 – down 4% year-on-year. The French grain growers’ association (AGPB) warned that France could lose its wheat export surplus within 10 years if crop declines continue.
While Paris milling wheat futures have failed to hold on to recent highs, prices remain considerably higher than a month ago. The December 2026 contract rose to €249.25 (£214.09) on Monday, then eased back to €244.75 (£210.24) at Wednesday’s close. The contract finished Thursday at €245.25 (£210.75).
Feed Barley
With French corn condition ratings plummeting to 27% good-to-excellent (from 62% last year) due to severe drought and heat, and the EU Commission cutting its maize forecast by 1.8 million tonnes to 50.1 million tonnes, European feed compounders are substituting missing corn with feed barley.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s largest barley buyer, United Group, is actively cutting purchases from the Black Sea, redirecting demand toward Argentina, Romania, Bulgaria, France and Australia.
Oilseeds
Germany’s winter rapeseed harvest fell 11% year-on-year to 3.52 million tonnes – its smallest crop since 2021. This leaves Germany’s 10-million-tonne processing industry heavily reliant on imports, even as German rapeseed oil exports dropped 14.4% to 1.11 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, strong biofuel demand is reshaping the global oilseed complex. For the 2026/27 season, US soybean oil consumption for biofuel production is projected to reach 7.9 million tonnes, representing over 50% of total domestic soybean oil use for the first time.
Paris rapeseed futures remain strong despite giving up some ground on Thursday. The November 2026 contract rose €6 over the first two days of the week, ending Tuesday at €558.00 (£478.43). After inching back to €557.50 (£478.88) on Wednesday, the contract ended slightly higher on Thursday at €557.75 (£479.30).
Wanted Crop
🌾 Feed barley is wanted for collection in the East of England. Moving in October 2026, with a guide price of £180–190/t ex-farm.
🌾 Feed oats required for collection in the South West, for movement between September and December 2026. Guide price of £165–170/t ex-farm.
🌾 Group 3 wheat (10.2/74/130) is wanted for collection in the East of England and East Midlands. Moving in September 2026, with a guide price of £208–210/t ex-farm.
This article is for general information only and does not constitute advice. While we make every effort to ensure the accuracy of the content at the time of publication, Hectare Trading makes no guarantee regarding the data provided.