Beyond benchmarks: how do you find grain prices you can trust?
2-MINUTE READ
When it comes to selling your grain, the big question is simple: how do you know if you’re being offered a fair price? If you can’t be sure, you could be missing out on pounds per tonne, which quickly mounts up to thousands of lost income across your crop.
Relying solely on the number your grain merchant gives you can feel like taking it on trust, which isn’t enough when margins are tight. So what’s the best way to get a reliable grain price?
The futures market
The ICE feed wheat futures market is often seen as the benchmark for UK feed wheat. Because futures contracts are available for different delivery months, they can give you an idea of both the current price and the carry for forward-selling. For example, the nearest contract right now is November 2025, which tells you the price you’d expect if you sold for November movement.
Merchants use this benchmark themselves when setting offer prices and often trade futures contracts directly to manage their own risk.
Futures are, however, limited. In practice, only May and November contracts are actively traded, leaving gaps in the calendar. If you’re looking for milling wheat, you need to switch to Matif – which is based on French, not UK, grain. Other crops are even trickier, with contracts often only traded in Chicago.
Futures also don’t reflect regional differences in supply and demand. The ICE price is a national benchmark for feed wheat but the ex-farm prices you’ll see on Hectare Trading typically differ in specific parts of the UK. In June, we reported on a major deviation in spot prices for feed wheat in the Midlands from the nearest ICE contract.
AHDB Corn Returns
By law, UK buyers have to report their purchases to AHDB, who then publish average ex-farm prices for wheat, barley and oats. These are known as the Corn Returns and they traditionally establish the market average.
The coverage is wider than futures, with results broken down by crop, region and whether the sale is for immediate or forward movement. They also distinguish between feed and milling wheat, feed and malting barley, and feed and milling oats.
The drawback is timing. Corn Returns are based on sales from the previous week, so they lag behind fast-moving markets. And in some regions, prices are patchy – feed wheat and feed barley usually have good coverage, but other crops less so.
Also, we’ve found that prices achieved by sellers on Hectare Trading frequently beat the equivalent AHDB Corn Returns by £5 per tonne or more.
Prices on Hectare Trading are more reflective of the live grain market than futures or AHDB Corn Returns
Real prices, right now
This is where Hectare Trading comes in. We provide regional ex-farm spot prices for all major crops, based on the latest offers made online by a broad range of buyers. You can filter all recent trading activity by crop and location, to see the live grain market as it changes.
We also estimate spot and forward ex-farm prices for feed and milling wheat, feed barley and oilseed rape, broken down by region.
That means you’re looking at the most detailed and up-to-date picture of the grain market available – built on real trades happening right now.
Decide for yourself
Ultimately, the most reliable grain price is the one that a buyer is willing to pay you. To find this out, simply list your crop on Hectare Trading and compare the range of competitive offers you receive.
Often, our farmers are surprised to see offers that beat traditional benchmarks. And there’s no obligation to accept any offer you receive. It’s the smart seller’s approach to the grain market.
Want to see the price offers you can get for your grain on Hectare Trading? Contact our team today and we’ll help set up your free account.
This article is for general information only and is not an instruction to trade. While we make every effort to ensure the accuracy of the content at the time of publication, Hectare Trading makes no guarantee regarding the data provided.