The year so far: what are the main wheat market moves of 2025?
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UK wheat farmers have had to take note of global politics in 2025, as potential tariffs and trade deals have shaped the prices growers can achieve at home. We’ve seen a slow decline in values as the market tries to price in shifting international supply and demand.
With unstable milling premiums and a changing bioethanol landscape, 2025 has already thrown up plenty to consider. So where should wheat farmers look for value now?
Uncertainty hits the wheat market
UK feed wheat futures seem to have been under pressure all year. If we track the price of the nearest contract month, we can see a clear downward trend through 2025.
Prices for the nearest contract month of UK (ICE) Feed Wheat since the start of 2025
Prices rallied through January to a high for the year of £184/t, but mounting tariff concerns following Donald Trump’s inauguration on 20 January soon dented confidence. By 28 March, the nearest contract had slipped to £165/t.
There was a short-lived rally in early April above £173/t as sterling weakened against the euro and the US dollar – making wheat imports less attractive and supporting domestic prices – before prices resumed their downward course.
The sudden rise around the end of July simply reflects the four-month jump from the July to the November contract and was not much of a rally in real terms. After peaking at £180/t on 22 July, the November contract also came under pressure into the post-harvest period, keeping a lid on prices.
Milling premium rallies at harvest before collapsing
We can compare the AHDB Corn Returns prices for feed wheat and bread milling wheat to track the average UK milling premium throughout the year to date.
Average UK milling premium since the start of 2025, based on AHDB Corn Returns
This premium held between £28.80/t and £13.10/t through the first half of the year. By late July, it had broken through £30/t – a bright spot for growers with quality grain.
However, AHDB’s latest Harvest Progress report shows that quality has been good across much of the crop, with specific weights averaging 79–80 kg/hl and protein content of 13.5% or higher.
Add to this a projected 11% rise in total wheat production year-on-year, and the milling market looks well-supplied. As a result, premiums have fallen back to their lowest levels of the year in recent weeks.
It’s worth noting that a year ago farmers were already concerned about the impact of excessive milling wheat imports. Yet on 19 September 2024 the milling premium stood at a healthy £45.80/t.
Bioethanol: a major demand shift
Another big story for 2025 has been bioethanol. In April, AHDB reported that UK bioethanol production had fallen to its lowest level since E10 petrol was introduced to the UK in 2021.
Cheaper US ethanol imports were squeezing out UK producers. The situation worsened in May when the UK–US trade deal removed a 19% tariff on US ethanol up to a quota roughly equal to the entire UK market.
The consequences have been swift: in August, Vivergo announced the closure of its Humberside plant, leaving just one UK bioethanol plant operating. This drastically cuts domestic demand for feed wheat used in bioethanol production – a key outlet for growers in some regions.
What this means for UK wheat farmers
For many wheat farmers, 2025 so far has been a year of tougher marketing conditions. Feed wheat prices remain under pressure, milling premiums have softened and a major outlet for feed wheat has closed.
Looking ahead, UK wheat growers need to stay alert to global developments that can ripple quickly through domestic prices. Combined with a clear plan for strategic selling, and a quick response to regional pockets of higher demand, this approach can give growers a better chance to capture value in an unpredictable market.
Don’t forget you can use Hectare Trading’s alerts and market insights to keep on top of all the latest market developments and regional prices.
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